Monday Musette – Previews from Australia to Argentina

Fotoreporter Sirotti

At last, the 2011 season begins today and tomorrow in Argentina and Australia with Tour de San Luis and the Santos Tour Down Under kicking-off under sunny skies.  But while these events pale in comparison to the rest of the calendar, they’re a welcome sight for fans tired of debating team kit, sponsorship identities, and the proper use of the Caps Lock key.

Here’s a run-down of what we can expect:

1. The 2.1 Tour de San Luis rose in popularity last year after a few major teams—most notably Liquigas with Vincenzo Nibali—used the 7-day event as a warm-weather training camp.  Nibali won last year’s overall title and while he won’t be returning this year, 2010 Giro d’Italia-winner Ivan Basso makes the trip in his stead.

Androni Giocattoli returns to Argentina as well, with 2010 stage-winner Jackson Rodriguez and overall runner-up Jose Serpa leading the squad’s 6-man roster.  South America’s always been an important market for Androni, look for the team to do its best to dominate the event.

Three other squads warrant mention: Movistar brings several talented riders including Pablo Lastras and Xavier Tondo, while United Healthcare’s Scott Zwizanski could take an early-season win in the Stage 4 individual time trial.  Last but not least, one can never forget the Colombians, a nation that produced winners in last year’s editions of the Baby Giro and the Tour de l’Avenir—look for at least one of the squad’s riders to make an early splash in Argentina.

As for predictions, Jackson, Serpa and their Androni squad should be motivated to take the win. Lastras is one to watch as well, as is Zwizanski—if he can win the time trial and limit his losses in the mountains.  January races are always a crap-shoot, but I feel confident at least two of these three are good choices for the podium, with Serpa the best bet for the overall victory in a race soon to be forgotten by all but the one who wins it.

2. On the other hand, Australia’s Santos Tour Down Under, the first stop on the UCI’s World Tour, is a much more prestigious event—especially if you happen to be a field sprinter.  And moreso than in year’s past, this year’s 6-day race features some interesting sub-plots.

First of all, the 2011 Tour Down Under will be our first chance to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel renew their rivalry—but for the first time as opponents.  For Greipel, the Tour Down Under is essentially a home race for him; the German’s won the event twice and has seven stage wins and two points titles to his name.  He comes to the race with more or less his entire Omega Pharma-Lotto lead-out train including Jurgen Van de Walle, Adam Hansen, Olivier Kaisen, Jurgen Roelandts, and Marcel Sieberg.

HTC-High Road wants to make a point though, bringing Cavendish, Mark Renshaw, Matthew Goss, and Bernhard Eisel to the event.  Throw-in Danny Pate, Bert Grabsch, and Hayden Roulston, and you have all the makings of a squad that could win just about every stage of the event.  In fact, they’re already off to winning start, with Goss and Renshaw finishing 1-2 in Sunday’s Cancer Council Classic (thankfully minus the “we’re manlier than you” skinsuits used by Team Sky last year).

The Cavendish/Greipel rivalry will most likely be the focal point of the race—if not the season—with Cavendish eager to prove that he’s the undisputed fastest man alive and Greipel hoping to show the world that he was being held-back at HTC.  Expect fireworks—and no small amount of trash talking.

That said, there are several other sprinters with teams eager to prove that there’s room on the podium for more than just two.  Team Radio Shack, in addition to bringing Lance Armstrong to contest his last race internationally (at least until he says otherwise), has Robbie McEwen and Robbie Hunter on their roster.  Together, these two wily veterans just might find their way to a stage win, especially if Hunter is content working for someone else—and not mysteriously finding he has a little bit left to sprint for himself after leading-out his faster teammate.

Team Garmin-Cervelo brings an even bigger fish in Tyler Farrar, the man most likely to join Greipel and Cavendish as the fastest men in the world this season.  With Brett Lancaster and Julian Dean leading him out, Farrar has more than enough firepower to contend.  Garmin also boasts the new Australian Road Race Champion in Jack Bobridge.  Bobridge is one to watch on Stage 5 to Willunga, the only stage that might not end in a field sprint.

Other sprinters to keep an eye on include Rabobank’s Graeme Brown, a 3-time stage-winner; Team Sky’s Greg Henderson; Astana’s Allan Davis; and Quick Step’s new recruits Francesco Chicchi and Gerald Ciolek. BMC brings Alessandro Ballan and Alexander Kristoff; Saxo Bank Juan José Haedo and Baden Cooke; and Movistar Jose Joaquin Rodriguez Gil.  All in all, the field sprints will closely resemble those we can expect to see at this year’s Tour de France, minus only one or two important names.

As far as GC men possibly able to dethrone the sprinters for the overall title, well, that’s a tall order considering the amount of time bonuses available at the end of each stage.  Sky’s Michael Rogers, Team Leopard-Trek’s—oops—LEOPARD TREK’s Stuart O’Grady, and Saxo Bank’s Richie Porte are riders to consider.  It’s too bad there’s no ITT, otherwise the race would certainly produce more of an all-round winner.

In terms of predictions, I see HTC getting the better of Omega Pharma-Lotto, with Matthew Goss taking the win.  Cavendish and Greipel will swap some stages, with perhaps Farrar sneaking in for a win, but Goss is the more complete rider—and one more adapted to the heat and humidity the riders are sure to encounter.

And with that, we have our first race previews of the 2011 season.

Share your comments, picks, and predictions below.