Fotoreporter Sirotti
This Vuelta appears to have been anything but a good warm-up and form-check for the upcoming pancake-flat Worlds. While the use of statistics is severely limited in cycling, the form requirements for major races lend them well to certain preparation. Last year, Jeremy took a look at the previous ten years of World Championship victories, and with Thor Hushovd the winner of the 2010 World Championships, it seems four markers have been very good indicators: riding the Vuelta for preparation, winning a stage, abandoning the Vuelta to rest, taper, and peak for Worlds, and riding Worlds with large teams.
And so the Vuelta plays a crucial role for Worlds prep. However, continuing the current trend in Grand Tours stage design, there are few completely flat transfer stages earmarked for sprinters. Indeed, ten days deep into the Vuelta and there have only been two field sprints, won by Sky’s Chris Sutton and Skil-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel. All the ambitious sprinters gamely came, but who is left standing?
QuickStep’s Tom Boonen came with clearly the worst form of those considered contenders. His serious concussion at the Tour seems to have left a psychological block for him: we didn’t see him contend any sprints. The problem is, when you are Tom Boonen, nobody will let you get off the leash with a late attack. So what is Boonen going to do?
Mark Cavendish may still be considered a stop contender for the Worlds, what with a strong Team UK performance that earned them a full roster. But his early exit, which HTC-Highroad said was due to “lack of power”, doesn’t bear well for his ambitions. Did he push himself too much? Detractors say that in reality it was his disinterest in helping the team that led him to climb off the saddle. But if it is true that he lacked power, can he recover in time? He has flashes of one-shot brilliance, as in the 2009 Milan-San Remo, but he excels in stage races when he can rely on several stages’ worth of warm up to start his winning ways.
Other contenders include Lampre’s Alessandro Petacchi and 3-time champion Oscar Freire of Rabobank (who abandoned on Stage 8, apparently due to difficulty breathing) – between them, these veterans have only Freire’s 3rd place on Stage 7 to boast about. Petacchi impressed during the Giro, even finding some climbing legs in support of his teammate Michele Scarponi, but it looks like three Grand Tours in one season is proving to be a bit too much to handle.
Meanwhile, Garmin-Cervelo’s Tyler Farrar, perhaps an outside shot at the Worlds title with a dedicated team USA to back him up, fell injured in a mass pileup on Stage 7. So did Rabobank’s Matti Breschel, who has been designated Denmark’s man for Worlds.
In this morass of poor performances and abandons, one rider that has really impressed is Liquigas’s Peter Sagan. He has uncommon longevity in stage races, which can translate well in a long Worlds-type course. This year’s Vuelta is proving to be a good training ground for him, and he even pulled home a Stage win on Stage 6, when he and three Liquigas teammates shredded the front and took four of the top five on the stage.
Italy continues its search for leadership, and few names have surfaced – albeit by and large by riders not racing the Vuelta. Those include Liquigas’s Elia Viviani with his treble in the US Pro Cycling Challenge, teammate Daniel Oss who won one stage there, and Colnago-CSF Inox’s fastman Sacha Modolo, who has had a great season so far and came second to a strong Cavendish in the London test race. With Daniele Bennati continuing a fairly quiet season, Paolo Bettini may have to choose one of the other youngsters.
Another outside contender by virtue of the fact of his entering the race is Philippe Gilbert. Team Belgium may have to make a bet on the Walloon Son. However, his trademark “Gilbert Maneuvre” appears to be running a bit low on the turbo juice – at the GP Plouay when he was overhauled by a surging peloton.
This year’s Vuelta, with its abandones, few-and-far-between sprint stages, and rigorous climbs, seems to be diametrically opposed to the sprint-ready World Championships course. Considering this difficult preparation, who might be a threat for Worlds, and how are they preparing? Share your thoughts below.
Never count out the Manx man. His form looks not too great but he has proven to be on from for the top events when he is not ill/injured.
Also never count out Freire, three times San Remo and three world titles speak for themselves, even if he hasn't been visible the whole season and it looks like the longer the race the better his chances, probably because his younger, faster opponents are not that fresh and fast anymore and he can make up with his cleverness.
Peter Sagan looks really good in form and is a real contender for the title and not having a strong team at his side seems not too much of a disadvantage on this years course. And Bossoan-Hagen would be a similar rider like Sagan and to watch.
But if Cav should prove to be off form my bets are either on the Italian or the German squad, both teams have a good selection of fast men and the team size and men to control the finale. I think their problem would be the discussion who to ride for, Germany Greipel or Kittel, Italy Viviani or Modolo as you have named, and maybe their inexperience and long distance of younger riders. And I think Guardini is another name on the Italian squad to watch. And if a group of Puncheurs should get clear they have Visconti on the team, who too has quite a fast finish.
I think Gilbert's chances are very slim this year and I think he knows that and is already planing for next year, Ronde and the Worlds in Limburg, probably around Maastricht and Valkenburg.
The Italians traditionally ride very strongly as a team, don't they? I'm interested in how the Belgians race it: Gilbert has said he's riding for Boonen, which seems like it might be a waste if Boonen's form doesn't improve, but then they also have Van Avermaet.
For the Spanish, if Freire has a chance then surely Rojas must have too?
No mention of any Aussies? Haussler seems to be going deep in the Vuelta to hone his endurance, likewise Stuey O'Grady. Gerrans has just showed his form in France. If Matt Goss is over his brief illness – he claims he is and is busily tearing up the streets behind a motorbike – then this team looks formidable. The question is: who to ride for? Goss, Renshaw, Haussler or Matthews?
My bad, I missed the Aussies. With Goss and Matthews with Renshaw as leadout they surely too have a very strong and competitive team. I'm not so sure about Haussler, he is trying but the season has been plagued again by injury, and I don't know if his last minute efforts at the Vuelta are enough.
Sure, the Italians always have a strong squad, but despite Ballan winning in 2008, I still wonder how, I think he is besides that victory and the win at the Ronde the year before very overrated, this is the first time the have a real contender for the win since Bettini won in 2007.
As for the Belgians, I see no real sprinter in their leagues, lots of hard men for the classics with a fast finish yes, but a pure sprinter, no. Those days as Boonen or Steegmanns were sprinters are gone, imo.
Yes, Rojas as a chance too. He too seems to have an eye for the finishes but he too seems to lack the last bit of speed in comparison to his opponents, but maybe the length of the race might help him, too. Still I'd place my money on the old trickster Freire before I'd place it on Rojas.