US Cross – Week 8 Predictions

Posted on October 26, 2012 by

Adam Craig celebrates his win at DECX Day 2 (2012). Photo: Todd Prekaski.

This weekend, the US plays host to three UCI races. Round six of the MAC series will take place on Sunday with HPCX, near Rutgers University in New Jersey. Meanwhile Boulder, Colorado plays host to two C2 races, the Colorado Cross Classic and Victory Circle Graphix Boulder Cup. HPCX will feature the mid-Atlantic’s best riders along with an invasion of New England riders in what could be a mud fest if hurricane Sandy makes landfall on Sunday. In Boulder, the story could center around the return of Todd Wells as he makes his 2012/13 cross season debut. Here’s what I expect to see this weekend:

 

 

Colorado Cross Classic (C2)

The Winner

Ryan Trebon – although he’s not on the start list, I can’t imagine him only racing on Sunday at the Boulder Cup. Trebon won this race last year and should repeat. He’ll have his hands full with some strong local and international talent, but I expect him to get the job done.

The Podium

Ben Berden – Berden finished fourth here last year, less than a minute behind Trebon. While he could pick up the victory, I’m going to give the edge to Trebon and say that Berden should podium in what promises to be an exciting race.

Todd Wells – the three-time US National Champion returns to cross after a stellar mountain bike season that saw Wells crisscrossing the world, including a great performance at the Olympics in London. The transition back to cross is always tough, but I expect big things out of Wells as he gets his season started.

Victory Circle Graphix Boulder Cup (C2)

The Winner

Ben Berden – after finishing on the podium on Saturday, look for Berden to pick up his second victory of the season on Sunday. Berden beat a similar field last year that saw him edge out a four-man lead group in a dash to the line.

The Podium

Ryan Trebon – the runner-up last year, I’m sure Trebon would love to go two-for-two in Boulder. If he gets away early, he could take the victory, but for some reason I expect him to split the weekend with Berden.

Todd Wells – this is a tough pick for me. Wells is a proven veteran and could easily land on the podium both days. However, my day two picks usually seem to miss the mark. I’m going to stick with my gut and say Wells lands on the podium again on Sunday.

Believe it or not, the riders to watch list is pretty lengthy. Guys like Danny Summerhill, Jesse Anthony, Brad White and Tristian Schouten could play spoiler this weekend in Boulder.

HPCX (C2)

The Winner

Adam Craig – after picking up a victory last weekend in Maine, look for the mountain bike star to cross the line first on Sunday. With a 60% chance of rain and 30mph winds in the forecast, I expect sloppy conditions and Craig is one of a couple of guys who could capitalize on that.

The Podium

Justin Lindine – the last time Lindine visited the mid-Atlantic he swept the weekend at Granogue. Lindine should be in the hunt for victory, but in this case I’m giving the edge to Craig.

Dan Timmerman – if you go all the way back to my week one preview, you’ll see Timmerman as a rider to watch. In six UCI races this season, he hasn’t finished outside the top 15 and has been in the top five in half of those races. If conditions turn to a complete mess, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Timmerman on the top step, but I’m going to stick with a podium prediction for him.

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European Cross – Week 7 Predictions

Posted on October 26, 2012 by

Radomir Simunek carries his bike over the barriers. Photo: Michal Sváček, MF DNES.

This weekend there are two UCI races in Europe, the 20th Cyclocross de Karrantza (in Basque country) and round two of the World Cup in Plzen, Czech Republic. Both races are on Sunday, which means Karrantza could see an invasion of younger Belgian riders looking for easy UCI points. With no start list available, I will use this opportunity as a disclaimer for my predictions for that race. Round two of the World Cup takes place in Plzen, the home of the pilsner style of beer. The race should be a fast, tactical affair and once again, it should be a battle of Belgium’s best. Here’s how I think things will shake out:

XX Cyclo-cross de Karrantza (C2)

The Winner

Javier Ibanez – Ibanez finished second in Karrantza last year, which is good enough for me (last year’s winner is will be in Plzen). More importantly, he was a podium contender in all the Spanish races last season, hopefully this time he can land on the top step.

The Podium

Oscar Crespo – Crespo only races in Spain and finished inside the top ten in all six UCI races he did last season. Look for him to land on the podium, just not the top spot.

Aitor Gutierrez – Gutierrez only finished outside the top five once last season in Spanish races. However, he only landed on the podium twice last year. I think he’ll be on the podium on Sunday.

UCI World Cup – Round 2 (CDM)

The Winner

Sven Nys – the fact that Nys won here last year, with a very impressive last corner move, actually has no bearing on my decision to pick him on Sunday. Last weekend in Tabor Nys snapped a chain and had to run/roll to the pit. When he arrived he was around 30th and about 40 seconds behind the leaders. Nys almost casually rode his way up to the chase group and then took off for a solid fifth place finish. Barring another incident, look for him to repeat in Plzen.

The Podium

Kevin Pauwels – Pauwels looked to be in complete command last week en route to a victory in Tabor. Clearly things would have been different if Nys hadn’t had a mechanical, but you cannot discount his solo victory. With mild temperatures this week in Plzen, I expect a fast technical race, which should favor the likes of Nys and Albert. Look for Pauwels to podium and remain in the leaders jersey.

Niels Albert – last week in Tabor Albert overcame a poor start and battled his way to onto the podium. However, nothing compares to the poor start he had in Plzen last year. A Czech TV crew was literally standing in front of Albert when the proverbial gun went off, costing him a shot at victory. Look for Albert the challenge Nys and Pauwels all the way to the end, but I do not expect him to win.

What to watch for:

Lars van der Haar looked like a maniac last week in Tabor. The young dutchman took every opportunity to make sure the Belgian brigade (they took 5 out of the top 6 places in Tabor) knew he was there and meant business. Team tactics cost him a shot at victory, but more importantly a nasty crash this week in Woerden may set him back a few weeks if his hand doesn’t heal quickly.

Jeremy Powers one upped Jonathan Page last weekend, finishing seventh in Tabor, the highest ever finish for an American at a World Cup. Page finished eighth twice in the 2009/10 season at Iggore and Hoogerheide. Powers will start second row this week and could conceivably crack the top five with another stellar ride.

Radomir Simunek rode phenomenal for the the first 55 minutes of the race in Tabor. Too bad the race was an hour long. With the “retirement” of Zdenek Stybar, Simunek is the Czech Republic’s best rider. If he can put together a complete hour on Sunday, he could find himself in the top five.

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Cross Top 25 – Week 7

Posted on October 24, 2012 by

Note: thanks to a few of our visitors, an error in the first release of the rankings has been fixed. While the mathematical formula was correct, the wrong computer rankings were being shown. We have fixed the glitch and regret the error. The Top 25 remain the same, but some of their final computer ranking has changed.

Jeremy Powers sixth place finish in Tabor on Sunday helped cement him the number one spot for the fourth consecutive week. The computer loves Powers right now, ranking him number one across the board. Despite finishing number three in this weeks poll, that was good enough to keep him at number one.

Sven Nys reclaims the number one spot in the poll after finishing behind Niels Albert the past few weeks (Albert finished second). Rounding out the top five in the poll were Kevin Pauwels and Lars van der Haar.

Adam Myerson negotiates one of the many twists and turns on the Downeast course. Photo: Todd Prekaski.

Nys maintains the number two spot over all, despite being 8th in the computer. While he has a high winning percentage, strength of schedule (sos) and UCI points, the quality of his races is very low, as are most of the Europeans. The computer favors the Americans in this department, but that all should change next week now that the World Cups have begun.

Albert takes the third spot this week a head of Pauwels and Tim Johnson. Johnson remains the highest ranked rider without a win this season. Ryan Trebon (7th) falls out of the top five this week as does Ben Berden (15th).

Adam Myerson drops to the 21 spot this week, but remains the only rider without any UCI points in the top 25. This is largely due to the computer, which has him at 14.

[top25-week id=11]

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UCI Rankings Explained

Posted on October 24, 2012 by

Photo by Luc Claessen | ispaphoto.be

Lost somewhere in the shuffle between the continued fallout from the USADA report on Lance Armstrong and the presentation of the 2013 Tour de France route was the release of the UCI Cyclocross Classification (aka UCI Rankings). The rankings are updated each week following a World Cup race. So, with the first World Cup race (Tabor) occurring this past Sunday, the UCI released the first rankings of the 2012/13 season. While many may have expected to see the likes of Sven Nys, Jeremy Powers, or Niels Albert at the top, rule 5.2.003 (enacted in 2011) continues to catch many by surprise. Here’s a refresher on how things currently work and what that means.

The UCI offers six categories of racing with different points structures. They start with the UCI World Championships (CM), which offer the most points and go the deepest. That’s followed by World Cup events (CDM), Continental Championships (CC), National Championships (CN), Class 1 (C1) and Class 2 (C2) events. Since World, continental and national championships only occur once a season, riders gain the bulk of their points from World Cup, C1 and C2 races. Here’s a little table to show you the drastic difference in the points that these races offer:

C2 C1 CDM
Place Points Place Points Place Points
1 40 1 80 1 200
2 30 2 60 2 160
3 20 3 40 3 140
4 15 4 30 4 120
5 10 5 25 5 110
6 8 6 20 6 100
7 6 7 17 7 90
8 4 8 15 8 80
9 2 9 12 9 70
10 1 10 10 10 60
11 8 11 58
12 6 12 56
13 4 13 54
14 2 14 52
15 1 15 50
16 48
17 46
18 44
19 42
20 40
21 39
22 38
23 37
24 36
25 35
26 34
27 33
28 32
29 31
30 30
31 29
32 28
33 27
34 26
35 25
36 24
37 23
38 22
39 21
40 20
41 19
42 18
43 17
44 16
45 15
46 14
47 13
48 12
49 11
50 10
51 5*

*any rider finishing beyond 5oth gets 5 points

As you can see, the points get larger and go deeper in the higher ranked races. Therefore, a rider who simply finishes a World Cup race gets more points than a rider who finished 8th in a C2 race and/or 13th in a C1 race.

Of course, the UCI makes things even more complicated. According to rule 5.2.006 the number of points a rider can be awarded per race category is limited. For C1 events the best 6 results of each rider is used and for C2 events, the best 5 results are used. World Cup results are not capped. So, your C2 points will max out at 200, C1 at 480, but your World Cup points would max out at 1600 (8 wins). As you can see, for riders such as Jeremy Powers and Sven Nys, their C2 points max out really quickly and often times their C1 points do as well.

Finally, we circle back to rule 5.2.003 which uses a calendar year to calculate the rankings. So, rather than using only the points accrued in this season in its initial rankings, the UCI uses the points from October 23, 2011 (the second World Cup race last season) to October 21, 2012 (the first World Cup of this season). That means that if a rider like Sven Nys won 5 C2 races last winter, his C2 points for this year are currently maxed out. This is where things get complicated, so here are three real life examples:

Kevin Pauwels’ 2012 Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 1 200 CDM
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 2 30 C2
07 Oct 2012 Superprestige #1 – Ruddervoorde 3 40 C1
30 Sep 2012 Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin 6 20 C1
29 Sep 2012 Fidea GP Neerpelt 5 10 C2
Total 300

Sven Nys’ 2012 Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 5 110 CDM
18 Oct 2012 Kermiscross 2 30 C2
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 3 20 C2
07 Oct 2012 Superprestige #1 – Ruddervoorde 1 80 C1
30 Sep 2012 Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin 1 80 C1
29 Sep 2012 Fidea GP Neerpelt 1 40 C2
16 Sep 2012 Süpercross Baden 11 8 C1
Total 368

Jeremy Powers’ 2012 Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 7 90 CDM
15 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #4 – New Belgium Cup 1 40 C2
14 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #3 – New Belgium Cup 1 80 C1
07 Oct 2012 NEPCX #4 – Providence Cyclo-cross Festival 5 10 C2
06 Oct 2012 NEPCX #3 – Providence Cyclo-cross Festival 1 80 C1
30 Sep 2012 NEPCX #2 – Gran Prix of Gloucester 2 30 C2
29 Sep 2012 NEPCX #1 – Gran Prix of Gloucester 1 80 C1
24 Sep 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #2 – Planet Bike Cup 3 20 C2
23 Sep 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #1 – Planet Bike Cup 1 80 C1
20 Sep 2012 Cross After Dark Series #1 – CrossVegas 1 80 C1
15 Sep 2012 Nittany Lion Cross 1 40 C2
Total 630

So, if we went back to the pre 2011/2012 rules, where only this season’s results counted towards the rankings, Powers would be the number one ranked rider. However, using a calendar year, things look drastically different:

Kevin Pauwels’ Results:

Date Race Result Points Class
29 Jan 2012 Championnats du Monde / World Championships 3 320 CM
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 1 200 CDM
22 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #8 – Hoogerheide 1 200 CDM
26 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #6 – Heusden-Zolder 1 200 CDM
04 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #4 – Igorre 1 200 CDM
23 Oct 2011 UCI World Cup #2 – Tabor 1 200 CDM
15 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #7 РLi̩vin 2 160 CDM
26 Nov 2011 UCI World Cup #3 – Koksijde 2 160 CDM
18 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #5 – Namur 4 120 CDM
12 Feb 2012 GP Heuts 1 80 C1
20 Nov 2011 Superprestige #4 – Gavere 1 80 C1
01 Nov 2011 GvA-Trofee #1 – Koppenbergcross 1 80 C1
05 Feb 2012 Superprestige #7 – Hoogstraten 2 60 C1
01 Jan 2012 GvA-Trofee #6 – G.P. Sven Nys 2 60 C1
23 Dec 2011 Superprestige #6 – Diegem 2 60 C1
09 Jan 2012 Cyclocross Otegem 1 40 C2
19 Nov 2011 GvA-Trofee #3 – GP Hasselt 1 40 C2
06 Nov 2011 GvA-Trofee #2 – Ronse 1 40 C2
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 2 30 C2
01 Feb 2012 Augustijn Parkcross Maldegem 2 30 C2
08 Jan 2012 Championnat National de Belgique 10 3 CN

Sven Nys’ Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
18 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #5 – Namur 1 200 CDM
26 Nov 2011 UCI World Cup #3 – Koksijde 1 200 CDM
29 Jan 2012 Championnats du Monde / World Championships 7 190 CM
04 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #4 – Igorre 2 160 CDM
26 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #6 – Heusden-Zolder 3 140 CDM
15 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #7 РLi̩vin 4 120 CDM
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 5 110 CDM
23 Oct 2011 UCI World Cup #2 – Tabor 5 110 CDM
22 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #8 – Hoogerheide 6 100 CDM
08 Jan 2012 Championnat National de Belgique 1 100 CN
30 Sep 2012 Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin 1 80 C1
18 Feb 2012 Cauberg Cyclo-cross 1 80 C1
01 Jan 2012 GvA-Trofee #6 – G.P. Sven Nys 1 80 C1
30 Dec 2011 Fidea Cyclo-cross Leuven 1 80 C1
11 Dec 2011 Vlaamse Druivenveldrit 1 80 C1
10 Dec 2011 Scheldecross 1 80 C1
29 Sep 2012 Fidea GP Neerpelt 1 40 C2
12 Feb 2012 G.P. Stad Eeklo 1 40 C2
11 Nov 2011 Fidea Jaarmarktcross Niel 1 40 C2
18 Oct 2012 Kermiscross 2 30 C2
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 3 20 C2

Jeremy Powers’ Results:

Date Event Results Points Class
08 Jan 2012 Championnat National des USA 1 100 CN
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 7 90 CDM
14 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #3 – New Belgium Cup 1 80 C1
29 Sep 2012 NEPCX #1 – Gran Prix of Gloucester 1 80 C1
23 Sep 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #1 – Planet Bike Cup 1 80 C1
11 Dec 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #7 – Deschutes Brewery Cup 1 80 C1
12 Nov 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #5 – Derby City Cup 1 80 C1
06 Nov 2011 Harbin Park International 1 80 C1
15 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #7 РLi̩vin 14 52 CDM
23 Oct 2011 UCI World Cup #2 – Tabor 15 50 CDM
29 Jan 2012 Championnats du Monde / World Championships 26 42 CM
15 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #4 – New Belgium Cup 1 40 C2
15 Sep 2012 Nittany Lion Cross 1 40 C2
12 Dec 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #8 – Deschutes Brewery Cup 1 40 C2
13 Nov 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #6 – Derby City Cup 1 40 C2
04 Nov 2011 Darkhorse Cyclo-Stampede International CX 1 40 C2
22 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #8 – Hoogerheide 29 31 CDM
26 Nov 2011 UCI World Cup #3 – Koksijde 32 28 CDM

As a result Pauwels currently has 2,363 points, Nys has 2,080 and Powers has 1,073. This means Pauwels is first, Nys second and Powers 10th. Even more interesting, Zdenek Stybar, who isn’t racing this season, is third in the rankings.

You’ll also notice that some of this year’s results are missing from our table. That’s because these riders have maxed out their points in 2011/2012, and their 2012 results will not count until the calendar year cycles through.

Hopefully that helps clear up and explain the complicated points system the UCI uses to rank cross riders, which also determines their start order. If the old system was in place, Powers would be the first rider in the grid, for now he’s stuck in the second row (the grid is 8 riders wide) and has to continue to get results in C1 and World Cup races to move up.

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Nacht van Woerden Predictions

Posted on October 23, 2012 by

Lars van der Harr. Photo: Michal Sváček, MF DNES.

As I stated last week, the European schedule is filled with mid-week races over the coming weeks. This week Woerden, in the Netherlands, hosts it’s 12th annual night race. While the race is predominantly Dutch, many Belgian, and other international stars head to this race. The race hasn’t been won by a Dutch rider since Richard Groenendaal in 2005 (in 2006 it was the Dutch national championships). However, a Dutch rider has finished on the podium every year except three (2000,2001,2003). How will things go this year? Here’s what I think will happen:

Kiremko Nacht van Woerden (C2)

The Winner

Lars van der Haar – in our season preview, I said that I consider van der Haar one of the top-ten, if not, top-five, riders in the world. After petitioning the UCI last year to race with the Elite Men this season (he’s under 23 still), he’s proven that he deserves to fight with the big boys. A runner-up last year, look for him to win tonite.

The Podium

Bart Aernouts – last year’s winner in Woerden, Aernouts will have to settle for second behind Dutch phenom van der Harr. While Aernouts does have a sprint, it’s nowhere near as strong as van der Haar. Unless Aernouts can get away early, I think he’ll have to settle for second.

Twan van den Brand – this young Dutchman is coming off an impressive ninth place finish in Tabor. I expect him to stick with the leaders for most of the day, if not until the very end. However, I expect him to take the third spot on the podium.

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European Cross – Week 6 Predictions

Posted on October 19, 2012 by

Kevin Pauwels cross the line first in Tabor (2011).

All eyes are on Tabor, Czech Republic for the first round of the World Cup. With a full slate of racing (Junior, U23, Elite Women and Elite Men), all of Europe will be there. Without Zdenek Stybar, the World Cup looks destine for another year of Belgian domination, unless riders like Francis Mourey and Lars van der Haar can produce something special. Because of the limit on riders (per country) in World Cup races, there’s a C2 race on Sunday in Luxembourg that will see a strong international field. While the field is primarily Belgian, there will be a handful of riders from around Europe looking to pick up UCI points. Here’s how I see it happening this weekend:

GP de la Commune de Contern (C2)

The Winner

Joeri Adams – Adams should lead the Belgian charge in Contern. Last year Adams won by nearly a minute over Rob Peeters. I expect him to repeat on Sunday.

The Podium

Sven Vanthourenhout – Vanthourenhout has been racing cross since 1997 and continues to be be a top-10 contender. While his results have slowed somewhat over the past few years, look for him to contend for victory in Contern. He should land on the podium, just not on the top step.

Jan Denuwelaere – the 24-year-old Belgian should end up on the podium like he did last year. Denuwelaere rode well last year in Contern and came away with a third place finish. Look for the same this Sunday.

UCI World Cup Round 1 – Tabor (CDM)

The Winner

Sven Nys – while Nys is no longer the unstoppable force he once was, look for him to take the victory in Tabor. Last year Nys struggled and finished fifth, but with his good form, desire to win and experience, I expect him to lead the Belgian charge on Sunday.

The Podium

Kevin Pauwels – after a slow start, last years World Cup overall champion, and winner in Tabor, looks for a repeat this weekend. While Pauwels will win this year, and may even take another overall title, he’s still a step behind Nys and Albert in my opinion.

Niels Albert – part of the inevitable Belgian sweep, Albert managed beat Nys last weekend in Ronse. While Nys poor start amy have been the real culprit last weekend, Albert is clearly on good form and one of a few men who can beat Nys. However, I don’t see it happening this weekend. I will say this, if Albert gets away early, he could hold on for victory.

Our riders to watch section for this race is filled with the non-Belgians who could play spoiler and some riders I’m keeping an eye on for various reasons. Francis Mourey could spoil the Belgian brigade on Sunday. Mourey finished fourth in Tabor last year and is always close to the lead group at World Cup races. Lars van der Haar makes his World Cup debut in the elite ranks and should land inside the top ten.

Gerben de Knegt will be in the starting grid on Sunday and has the distinction of being the oldest rider in the field at 38. Sven Nys and Jonathan Page are also in this race and aren’t too far behind de Knegt at 37. Page will have the company of two Americans this weekend in Tabor in the form of Tim Johnson and Jeremy Powers. All eyes will be on Powers to see where he’s really at.

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