US Cross – Week 7 Predictions

Posted on October 19, 2012 by

Justine Lindine, with Adam Myerson closing in, at a muddy Downeast cross in 2011. Photo: Dave Chiu.

This weekends racing features two pair of UCI C2 races on opposite sides of the country. After a bevy of C1/C2 weekends, the racing settles down a bit as the worlds top riders head to Europe. The New England Cyclocross Series continues in New Gloucester, ME, while Spooky Cross invades Pomona, CA. New Englands top riders will be in Maine looking to take control of the NECX series and pick up some valuable UCI points. Meanwhile, the west coast hosts it’s first UCI races of the season in Pomona. That race is usually dominated a rider who’s looking for UCI points (last year Trebon won both days). Ben Berden has raced Spooky Cross in the past and, if he shows, could dominate. Here’s who I think will win:

 

Downeast Cyclocross – NECX Rounds 3 & 4 (C2)

The Winner(s)

Justin Lindine – after an early season injury, Lindine has been battling the world’s best, much like the rest of New England, over the past few weeks. With some of the bigger names off to Europe, look for Lindine to return to the top step of the podium as he makes a stand for the NECX overall.

Dylan McNicholas – much like Lindine, McNicholas has been forced to take a backseat over the past few weeks as America’s top cross riders invaded New England. I expect McNicholas to pick up a victory this weekend as he and Lindine continue to battle for the NECX crown.

The Podium

Jeremy Durrin – Durrin could battle for victory this weekend and it wouldn’t surprise me if he does land on the top step of the podium. However, I’m going to say he podiums both days and will walk away without a victory.

Spooky Cross Weekend (C2)

My apologies to the West Coast and Spooky Cross. Unfortunately, I’m not familiar with a lot of the riders who are racing this race. In the past, a rider like Ryan Trebon, Zach McDonald or Ben Berden usually show up and dominate. Since no such rider is on the start list (as of this writing), I’m going to simply give you three riders to watch. If you’ve got the inside scoop, feel free to let me know.

Riders to watch:

Mitch Hoke – Hoke’s a pro cross racer and a top notch mountain biker. Last year he raced cross all over the country and in Europe. His best result was a third at Granouge.

Kevin Noiles – a mountain biker by trade, Noiles raced three UCI cross races last season, finishing inside the top-ten in all of them.

Aaron Schooler – Schooler’s been racing for a while now and is one of Canada’s top cross riders. He proved that last year, with a third at the Canadian National Championships.

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Cross Top 25 – Week 6

Posted on October 18, 2012 by

After a slight delay, due to official UCI results for the Finnish National Championships not being available (they will be part of next weeks computer rankings), this weeks Top 25 shakes things up a bit. This weeks poll once again has Niels Albert number one, with Sven Nys second and Kevin Pauwels in third. Pauwels was on six points behind Nys. Meanwhile the top American, Jeremy Powers, sits fourth in this weeks poll ahead of Ryan Trebon and Bart Aernouts. Ben Barden, Bart Wellens, Tim Johnson and Klaas Vantornout round out the top ten.

Jeremy Powers continues to be number one in the computer rankings. Power’s has been number one for three weeks now. Nicoals Bazin, who was number one for the first three weeks, remains at number two, but has slipped to eighth overall. The computer has James (Jamie) Driscoll at number three primarily because of his strength of schedule (SOS), in which he’s now number one. Martin Bina, who has been on a tare lately is number four in the computer rankings, and Ben Berden slots in at number five.

Putting it all together, Powers remains the number one rider a head of Nys and Trebon. Berden moves up to fourth, while Johnson moves up a spot to fifth and remains the highest place rider without a victory this season. Dan Timmerman slid way down in the rankings from 10th to 21st. Francis Mourey makes the biggest jump this week moving from 16th to 1oth. With this weekends World Cup race, the odds are things will drastically change next week.

Note: we’ve simplified the view of the rankings this week in an effort to make it easier to read and debate. While the computer uses fractions of a point, we’ve converted its results to numbers that actually make sense. We’ve also generated a column for the computer rankings and voter rankings. This should make the whole thing easier to read and understand. The far left (rank) is the final rank, followed by rider name, where they landed in the Top 25 Poll, the final computer ranking and how they rank in UCI Points, Race Quality, Winning % and Strength of Schedule. Hopefully it makes a bit more sense.

[top25-week id=9]

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Kermiscross 2012 Predictions

Posted on October 18, 2012 by

Photo by Luc Claessen | ISPAphoto.be

With no available start list, or website for that matter, this special edition of predictions will be short and sweet. We’re getting in to that time of year where midweek races start to pop-up in Europe. While I will do my best to include them in my usual predictions, every once in awhile I’ll have to do a one off edition. Kermiscross, in Ardooie, Belgium (west of Gent) will act as a pre-World Cup tune-up for many of Europes top riders. Last year, Zdenek Stybar out sprinted Sven Nys to take the win. Here’s what I think will happen this year:

The Winner

Sven Nys – Nys has never won this race, which is a rarity for the winningest cyclocross racer of all time. The past two years, Nys has been beat by Zdenek Stybar. Those two times are the only times Nys has started this race, despite it being run for 18 years. With Stybar’s absence and Nys’ desire to win, I think victory is his.

The Podium

Niels Albert – it appears to be an Albert v. Nys season and that trend will continue in Ardooie today. Albert should give Nys a run for his money, but with the World Cup looming and Nys’ form right now, I don’t expect a victory from Albert.

Dieter Vanthourenhout – I consider this an educated guess. While any number of riders could land on the podium, Dieter Vanthourenhout has done well at Kermiscross in the past. I look for him to land on his first podium this season.

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Cross Predictions Wrap-Up – Week 6

Posted on October 16, 2012 by

Albert and Pauwels on the run-up in Ronse. Photo: belga.

It was a wild weekend of cross racing that saw Martin Bina continue his winning streak, Jeremy Powers continued domination of C1 races in the US and a bizarre start in Ronse that may have cost Sven Nys a victory. Bina extended his winning streak, as I predicted, and has now won three-straight Toi Toi Cup rounds. Niels Albert took home his first victory of the season (as predicted) in a race that saw rival Nys start nearly 25 riders back. Finally, Jeremy Powers cemented his place as the rider to beat stateside, with a pair of wins in Colorado. Here’s how my predictions did this past weekend:

Toi Toi Cup – Round 4 (C2)

1. Martin Bina – 1st
2. Michael Boros – 7th
3. Tomas Paprstka – 4th

Points: 3

National Trophy Series – Round 1 (C2)

1. Ian Field – 1st
2. Paul Oldham – 2nd
3. Ian Bibby – DNS

Points: 4

Bpost Bank Trofee  – Ronse (C2)

1. Niels Albert – 1st
2. Kevin Pauwels – 2nd
3. Sven Nys – 3rd

Points: 5

French National Cyclocross Challenge – Round 1 (C2)

1. Francis Mourey – 1st
2. Steve Chaniel – DNS
3. Nicolas Bazin – 9th

Points: 3

Finnish National Championships (CN)

1. Kimmo Kananen – 2nd
2. Sam Tiainen – DNS
3. Henri Ojala – 4th

Points: 1

The Smartwool Cup – USGP Rounds 3 & 4 (C1/C2)

Day 1

1. Jeremy Powers – 1st
2. Ryan Trebon – 2nd
3. Ben Berden – 3rd

Points: 5

Day 2

1. Ryan Trebon – 11th
2. Jeremy Powers – 1st
3. Zach McDonald – DNF

Points: 1

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European Cross – Week 5 Predictions

Posted on October 12, 2012 by

Francis Mourey wins Supercross baden. Photo: radsportphoto.net/Steffen Mussiggang.

Unlike the US, which has spent the past few weekends racing at one venue, the European cross season is in full swing with UCI races across the continent. The action kicks off on Saturday with the fourth round of the Toi Toi Cup, where Martin Bina will put his winning streak on the line. Both France and England will start their national series on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GVA Trofee (now Bpost Bank Trofee) kicks off in Ronse, Belgium. Finally, in Finland, the first national championships of the season will be held as they crown their 2012 champion. Here’s how I think things will turn out:

Toi Toi Cup – Round 4 (C2)

The Winner

Martin Bina – Bina has won four straight races, including the the past two Toi Toi Cup rounds. Bina heads to Hlinsko as the heavy favorite and I don’t see anyone who can stop him. Last year’s winner, Christoph Pfingsten, was scheduled to return to Hlinsko, but had to pull out due to illness.

The Podium

Michael Boros – the 21-year-old Czech rider broke through last weekend with a win in Podbrezova, Slovokia. Boros could win on Saturday, but I still think Bina has a step up on him. Look for that to change soon as the young rider begins to close the gap to the veteran Bina.

Tomas Paprstka – like Boros, Paprstka is a young Czech rider on the rise. Despite not being on the podium much this season, he seems destined for a breakthrough. Look for him to land on the podium on Saturday.

National Trophy Series – Round 1 (C2)

The Winner

Ian Field – after a stint in the US, the British National Champion returns home to contest the first round of their national series in Abergavenny. Field hasn’t contested the early rounds of the National Trophy Series in a few years, but is the clear favorite for victory.

The Podium

Ian Bibby – a former National Champion, Bibby should be a formidable opponent on Sunday. While I don’t expect him to win, he should land on the podium.

Paul Oldham – one of the two perennial series contenders, look for Oldham to get a jump on his “rival,” Jody Crawforth. With Bibby and Field in attendance, the depth of this weekend’s field is impressive. Oldham and Crawforth could both contend for victory, but I expect them to play a lesser role this weekend.

Bpost Bank Trofee  – Ronse (C2)

The Winner

Niels Albert – I went with him last week, even though I admitted I really wanted to go for Sven Nys. I’m sticking with that same logic again this weekend. Last year, Albert finished in third spot (behind Kevin Pauwels and Zdenek Stybar). Albert has looked good thus far and I expect him to land on the top-step of the podium in Ronse.

The Pdoium

Sven Nys – the Nys and Albert show should continue this weekend as the Bpost Bank Trofee kicks off in Ronse. I just don’t think Nys’ winning streak can continue, but then again, I was wrong last weekend.

Kevin Pauwels – the winner in Ronse last year returns with some pressure on his shoulders. Pauwels has struggled a bit this season, but rode to a solid third place last weekend in Ruddervorrde. I expect the young Belgian to land on the podium again this weekend.

French National Cyclocross Challenge – Round 1 (C2)

The Winner

Francis Mourey – Mourey has had a mixed start to the season, dominating early on, but struggling recently. No matter what, Mourey always seems to do well on home soil. I expect Mourey to take the victory in the first round of France’s national series.

The Podium

Steve Chaniel – last time Mourey and Chaniel squared off in Saverne, Chaniel got the better of him. Neither rider has engaged in much trash talking, but clearly this will be a battle to watch. I give Mourey the edge, but Chaniel is definitely capable of picking up another victory in Saverne.

Nicolas Bazin – Bazin returned home this week after a dominating start to the season in the US. I honestly feel like he could win on Sunday, but for some reason I think Mourey is unstoppable. Bazin could give everyone a run for their money and could even pull off the upset if he can maintain the form we saw in September in the US.

Finnish National Championships (CN)

The Winner

Kimmo Kananen – after winning the title in 2010, Kananen came across the line third last year, in a four man sprint. Look for the 33-year-old to get a little bit of revenge and recapture his crown Sunday in Helsinki.

The Podium

Sam Tiainen – the young Finnish rider landed on the top step of the podium last year and would love to repeat. At 24, he’s one of the youngest riders in the field. Despite that, I just don’t think he has enough to beat Kananen.

Henri Ojala – last years runner-up, Ojala will have to settle for the podium again. However, as we saw last year, anything can happen and Ojala could easily take the victory if it comes down to another three or four man sprint.

Note: There’s no starting list for the Finnish National Championships. I also couldn’t find any sort of preview of the race. All the aforementioned riders didn’t race in any UCI race outside of their National Championships last year. If by some chance you read this and are Finnish or know someone who is, I’d be glad to talk to them and find out more about cross in Finland.

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US Cross – Week 6 Predictions

Posted on October 12, 2012 by

Zach McDonald battles the mud enroute to a victory in Providence. Photo: Todd Perkaski.

Four the fourth consecutive week, riders in the US have to opportunity to pick up a ton of UCI points with another C1/C2 weekend. After two weekends in the heart of New England, most of the nation’s top riders will fly across the country to Fort Collins, CO for the third and fourth round of the USGP. Last year, the podium featured Ryan Trebon, Geoff Kabush and Jeremy Powers, with Powers and Trebon splitting victories in CO. Sound familiar? The predictor thinks so. Without further ado, here’s who I expect to land on the podium this weekend:

The Smartwool Cup – USGP Rounds 3 & 4 (C1/C2)

The Winner(s)

Jeremy Powers – Powers has won every C1 race in the US this year and, at times, looks unstoppable. With the first World Cup round just around the corner, Powers would love to continue his stateside domination. I expect him to land on the podium both days this weekend, picking up at least one victory.

Ryan Trebon – Trebon seemed to struggle a bit last weekend, but is still one of the strongest riders in the US. Trebon should pick up a victory in Fort Collins this weekend. I usually don’t pick specific days, but if I had to, I’d look for Trebon to win on Saturday. With a bit of rain in the forecast and C1 points on the line, Trebon just may be able to to break Powers stranglehold on C1 races.

The Podium

Zach McDonald – to the average cross fan, McDonald’s win last Sunday was a shocker. However, McDonald is no slouch, especially in the mud. While the weekend doesn’t look super muddy, McDonald is on form and slick conditions on Saturday should favor the Washington native. Look for McDonald to land on the podium at least once this weekend.

Ben Berden – Berden has been in the mix all season, landing on the podium multiple times. Clearly the Belgian rider is on great form and has figured out US racing. I expect Berden to land on the podium this weekend.

It has been a while since I did a riders to watch paragraph, but two riders stand out as potential wildcards this weekend in Fort Collins. Geoff Kabush returns to cross after a few week absence. His performance in Fort Collins last year was fun to watch and surprising to see. I’m sure he’d love to do it again. Fellow mountain biker Adam Craig will show off his cross skills as well this weekend. Craig is one of those riders who could probably be a top-five contender if he raced cross full time. If he can overcome a poor starting position, he could surprise many.

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