2012/13 Cross Rankings

Posted on October 2, 2012 by

Photo by Luc Claessen | ispaphoto.be

One of the first reasons we started covering cross a few years ago was because we wanted to publish our own rankings. Today marks an evolution in that idea, as we introduce a brand new ranking system. No longer is it simply our opinion on the top-ten riders in cross right now. Instead, we’ve created a system that uses a combination of computer rankings and fan input that ranks the top 25 riders in cross each week. This system was developed last year and is finally ready for prime time.

While I won’t bore you with the nitty gritty details, our new system combines five factors: UCI Points, Race (Field) Quality, Winning Percentage, Strength of Schedule (SOS) and fan votes. These five factors are combined to come up with an overall point total. This points total is then converted to decimal form (1.0 being the maximum possible score) and riders are ranked highest to lowest. If you’re familiar with the BCS in college football, the end result will look much the same.

So, why did this take so long? The mathematical formula for field quality is complicated and has taken a while to develop. Same thing goes for the strength of schedule, which was a new addition for this season. After working out most of the bugs last year, we’ve decided to roll it out. One downside to the system is that the computer needs a few weeks of data to accurately rank riders. As a result, we decided to wait until the first week in October to release the rankings. From here on out, the rankings will be released every week.

The most important part, and most interesting, is the user input. Every Monday, anyone and everyone can vote for their top 25 cross riders. We have set up a simple dropdown form that users can submit every Monday (the computer will calculate the rankings Monday night). So far, five experts have been voting each week to give some base data. From here on out, anyone can vote.

One final note on voting. I will have all the information on how to vote (it’s a simple as visiting a webpage) and the deadlines to vote later this week. You will notice that the dropdowns are pretty lengthy. That’s because every single rider who finishes a UCI race is in the ranking system. As of right now, we have over 300 riders in our system, and that number grows each week.

The new rankings will be unveiled tomorrow and, like I said, the public voting page will be available later this week.

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Cross Predictions Wrap-Up – Week 4

Posted on October 1, 2012 by

Trebon crosses the line as fans cheer in Gloucester. Photo: Todd Prekaski

After a near perfect Saturday, my predicting prowess went awry on Sunday. The mudfest that was Gloucester created some great racing and showed that this year will most likely be a battle between Jeremy Powers and Ryan Trebon. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, Sven Npys dominated in Belgium while Martin Bina looked unstoppable in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Here’s how I did last week:

US Cross – Week 4

Great Brewers International Gran Prix of Gloucester – Day 1

1. Jeremy Powers – 1st
2. Ryan Trebon – 2nd
3. Tim Johnson – 3rd

Points: 5

Great Brewers International Gran Prix of Gloucester – Day 2

1. Jeremy Powers – 2nd
2. Ben Berden – 3rd
3. Nicolas Bazin – 8th

Points: 2

European Cross – Week 3

Toi Toi Cup – Round 2

The Winner

1. Radomir Simunek – DNS
2. Martin Bina – 1st
3. Petr Dlask – 7th

Points: 1

International Cyclocross Marikovská Dolina

1. Martin Bina – 1st
2. Robert Gavenda – 4th
3. Petr Dlask – DNS

Points: 3

International Cyclocross Financne centrum

1. Robert Gavenda – 7th
2. Martin Bina – 1st
3. Petr Dlask – DNS

Points: 1

Fidea GP Neerpelt

1. Sven Nys – 1st
2. Niels Albert – 2nd
3. Kevin Pauwels – 5th

Points: 4

Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin

1. Kevin Pauwels – 6th
2. Niels Albert – 2nd
3. Francis Mourey – 9th

Points: 1

Radcross Illnau

1. Lukas Fluckiger – 4th
2. Enrico Franzoi – 2nd
3. Simon Zahner – 3rd

Points: 2

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US Cross – Week 4 Predictions

Posted on September 28, 2012 by

The calm before the storm in Gloucester (2011). Photo by Sasha Eysymontt | flickr.com/photos/sashae

It’s a rare occasion in the United States to have only one-pair of UCI races on a weekend. It’s even rarer to have a UCI C1 race stateside, which is why America’s top cross riders have all assembled on the Gran Prix of Gloucester aka the New England World Championships. In addition to the nearly 2,000 competitors, 90+ riders will take to the start grid in the Elite Men’s race. The list of talent goes deeper than a National Championship and with rain in the forecast, this could be a truly great weekend of cross.

I will honestly admit that picking this weekend’s winner and podium finishers is nearly impossible. I left off a few riders who could easily make a bid for victory including National Champions, former podium finishers and even a past champion of this race. I’m standing by my predictions, but would love to hear yours. So, without further ado, here’s this weekend’s predictions:

Great Brewers International Gran Prix of Gloucester (C1/C2)
NEPCX Rounds 1 & 2

The Winner

Jeremy Powers – while it’s hard to believe that Powers will dominate both days in “glosta”, it’s hard to argue that he won’t. Powers is four-for-five this year with his only non-win being a third place finish at the second round of the USGP. Powers won here last year and would love to duplicate that success.

The Podium

Tim Johnson – Johnson has been knocking on the door all season, but just hasn’t figured out a way to land on the top step of the podium. Look for the first winner of this race (in 1999) to land on the podium this weekend.

Ben Berden – despite missing the podium last weekend in Wisconsin, Berden looks very strong right now. He finished fourth on day one and third on day two last year in “glosta”. This leads me to believe he’ll finish on the podium one day this weekend.

Ryan Trebon – Trebon returns to “glosta” this year, a race he’s won three times. Trebon has looked solid this year, and despite not being 100%, he’s clearly a podium contender. I pick him to land on the podium this weekend.

Nicolas Bazin – despite ruling the East Coast this season, I don’t expect Bazin to win this weekend. In fact, I wouldn’t even be surprised if he misses the podium. With that said, Bazin is riding really well and this is his chance to make his mark against a top-notch American field.

One last note: due to an error on my part, I missed the Gateway Cup this past Wednesday. For some reason I thought the race was the last Wednesday in October. My apologies. Now, I could sit here and say that I would have predicted the winner correctly (Ben Berden) and would have picked Jonathan Page to land on the podium (second), but I won’t. Instead, I’ll take a zero (my second this season) and apologize for my mistake.

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European Cross – Week 3 Predictions

Posted on September 27, 2012 by

The Elite Men prepare to start the 2012 Supercross Baden race. Photo: radsportphoto.net/Steffen Müssiggang.

The European season finally kicks into high gear this weekend with six UCI races, including a UCI C1 race on Sunday. All the big European stars will be in action this weekend in Belgium including Sven Nys, Kevin Pauwels and Niels Albert. Several riders who made the trip to Vegas will return home to battle it out with Belgium’s best. Keep an eye on Lars van der Haar as he makes his official debut in the European elite ranks this weekend as well.

The Toi Toi Cup continues with a stop in Unicov while the Slovakian Cup kicks off this weekend with a pair of UCI C2 races in Udica-Prostne. This, in itself is proof of the growth of the sport. Last year, Slovakia only had one UCI race outside of their national championships. The first three rounds of their national series are all C2 races.

Needless to say, its an action-packed weekend on the other side of the pond. Without further ado, here’s this week’s predictions:

Toi Toi Cup – Round 2 (C2)

The Winner

Radomir Simunek – Simunek rode very well at the first round of the Toi Toi Cup, narrowly beating out Martin Bina in a two-up sprint finish. Simunek will head to Belgium for the weekend, but should pick up a victory in Unicov on Friday.

The Podium

Martin Bina – Bina pushed Simunek to the limit in Lostice and could very well do the same in this race. I still think Simunek is a bit stronger, but Bina could easily take home his first victory of the season.

Petr Dlask – Dlask finished fifth in Lostice, roughly 25 seconds off the podium. Despite being one of the oldest riders in the peloton, Dlask remains one of the Czech’s best. I think he’ll finish on the podium on Friday.

International Cyclocross Marikovská Dolina & International Cyclocross Financnecentrum (C2)
Rounds 1 & 2 of the Slovak Cup

The Winner

Robert Gavenda – the Slovakian champion will have a lot on his shoulders as he tries to defend his home turf in what will most likely be a Czech/Slovakian field. While the Czech Republic’s top riders are headed to belgium, Gavenda will have his hands full with some very strong and experienced Czech talent. I think that he’ll take the top step of the podium one of the two days.

Martin Bina – honestly, I could see Bina winning both days as well. He looked strong at the first round of the Toi Toi Cup where finished second to Radomir Simunek. Look for Bina to split victories with Gavenda.

The Podium

Petr Dlask – despite being 37-years-old, Dlask still remains one of the Czech Republic’s top riders. He could very easily win both days, but I think Bina and Gavenda have a better shot at victory. Look for Dlask to remain competitive and potentially out fox the youngsters.

Fidea GP Neerpelt (C2)

Note: while this is listed on the UCI site as the Fidea GP Neerpelt, the five-race series is now sponsored by Soudal.

The Winner

Sven Nys – after putting my faith in Nys in Baden, where he ultimately finished 11th, I’m still on the bandwagon. Nys won this race last year, in fact he won all the rounds of the Fidea series (now called the Soudal Classics). In addition, Nys has a had a week to rest and truly prepare for the cross season. Those three factors make me believe that he will return to the top step of the podium.

The Podium

Kevin Pauwels – Pauwels was arguably the best rider in the World last year and one of the few riders who could push Nys, Niels Albert and Zdenk Stybar to their limit. I have high hopes for the young Belgian, but I don’t think he’ll beat Nys. It should be a very close race, especially since Pauwels will have a bevy of teammates. In the end though, the more experienced cross racer (Nys) should prevail.

Niels Albert – Francis Mourey, Tom Meeusen, Klaas Vantornout, Rob Peeters, Bart Wellens; the list of riders Albert will have to beat for a podium spot seems endless. The Wolrd Champion should do well on the technical course, but I’m not sure he can better the veteran Nys. If he does, it would be no real surprise, but the young Belgian will have his work cut out for him.

Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin (C1)

The Winner

Kevin Pauwels – if we stick with my predictions, Pauwels will finish as the runner-up on Saturday. This race, in his hometown, will be his chance to grace the top step of the podium for the first time this season and get some revenge on his rivals. The crowd in Kalmthout, Belgium will be exactly what he needs to secure victory.

The Podium

Niels Albert – if this race wasn’t in Pauwels hometown, I’d give the victory to the man wearing the rainbow stripes. A pair of podiums should mark the start of a very good season for Albert.

Francis Mourey – Mourey tends to struggle outside of France, but is clearly out to prove that that statement is no longer true. After a victory in Baden, Mourey is looking very strong. He could make a bid for victory, but will have to settle for being the only non-Belgian to podium in Belgium this weekend.

Radcross Illnau (C2)

The Winner

Lukas Fluckiger – the Swiss mountain biker is on a roll right now. After doing exceptionally well at MTB World’s Fluckiger picked up a podium spot in Baden before heading to the US. Stateside, he put in a solid, all be it week-long, campaign that culminated with a win last weekend at the second round of the USGP. Put it all together, and he’s my odds on favorite to win.

The Podium

Enrico Franzoi – after finishing third in his first race of the season (Supercross Baden), Franzoi continues his mini Swiss campaign on Sunday. Franzoi should remain in the thick of things, but will ultimately have to settle for second behind a flying Fluckiger. Should Fluckiger suffer a mechanical or bobble, Franzoi could capitalize and make a bid for victory.

Simon Zahner – completing the Swiss sandwich should be the 30-year-old Zahner. He finished fifth in Baden and looks to be steadily improving. Despite the C1 race in Belgium, a lot of foreign riders are heading to Illnau to grab some valuable UCI points. Zahner will have his hands full, but should land on the podium.

One last note, the Toi Toi Cup and the two Slovakian races did not have start lists, or at least none that I can find. This is my mini disclaimer to say if none of those riders show, it’s not my fault.

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The Predictor Wrap-Up – Week 3

Posted on September 25, 2012 by

 

Lukas Fluckiger at Super Cross Baden. Photo: radsportphoto.net / Steffen idleness

It took a few weeks, but I’ve finally come up with a reasonable system for measuring how accurate my predictions are. As previously mentioned, each race is worth 5 points. I get 3 points for correctly predicting the winner and 1 point for each rider I correctly predict on the podium. If I predict a person to win and they finish on the podium I get 1 point. Same applies if I predict them to finish on the podium and they win. Below you will find the race, my top three, their actual finish position and the points I get.

US Cross – Week 1

Rohrbach’s Ellison Park Cyclocross – Day 1
1. Nicolas Bazin – 1st
2. Jonathan Page – 2nd
3. Justin Lindine – 3rd

Points: 5

Rohrbach’s Ellison Park Cyclocross – Day 1
1. Nicolas Bazin – 1st
2. Jonathan Page – 7th
3. Justin Lindine – 5th

Points: 3

US Cross – Week 2

Green Mountain Cyclo-Cross – Day 1
1. Nicolas Bazin – 1st
2. Jonathan Page – 5th
3. Tim Johnson – 3rd

Points: 4

Green Mountain Cyclo-Cross – Day 2
1. Tim Johnson – 3rd
2. Nicolas Bazin – 2nd
3. Jonathan Page – 4th

Points: 2

Nittany Lion Cross  – Day 1
1. Jeremy Powers – 1st
2. Jeremy Durrin – 2nd
3. Craig Richey – 4th

Points: 4

Nittany Lion Cross  – Day 2
1. Jeremy Powers – DNS
2. Jeremy Durrin – DNF
3. Craig Richey – 3rd

Points: 1

European Cross – Week 1

Süpercross Baden
1. Sven Nys – 11th
2. Francis Mourey – 1st
3. Simon Zahner – 5th

Points: 1

European Cross – Week 2

Toi Toi Cup Round 1
1. Petr Dlask – 5th
2. Radomir Simunek – 1st
3. Vladimir Kyzivat – 10th

Points: 1

US Cross – Week 3

CrossVegas
1. Lars van Der Haar – 4th
2. Rob Peeters – 18th
3. Ryan Trebon – 6th

Points: 0

The Planet Bike Cup – USGP Round 1
1. Jeremy Powers – 1st
2. Tim Johnson – 2nd
3. Jonathan Page – 7th

Points: 4

The Planet Bike Cup – USGP Round 2
1. Tim Johnson – 5th
2. Jeremy Powers – 3rd
3. Ben Berden – 6th

Points: 1

Charm City – Day 1
1. Nicolas Bazin – 1st
2. Ian Field – 2nd
3. Ryan Knapp – 4th

Points: 4

Charm City-  Day 2
1. Ian Field – 2nd
2. Nicolas Bazin – 1st
3. Jared Nieters – 14th

Points: 2

I will do a weekly wrap-up of the predictions from now on, either on Monday or Tuesday, depending on which day we post our new rankings system. That system will debut tomorrow.

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2012/13 US Cross Week 3 – Predictions

Posted on September 21, 2012 by

Nicolas Bazin wins the first race of the 2012 Verge New England Cyclocross Series. Photo: Todd Prekaski.

After a mid-week showdown in Vegas, the biggest names in cross converge on Wisconsin for the first two rounds of the USGP. While the series ran into some financial struggles about a month ago, the fields look bigger and better than ever. With two days of racing, including a C1 race on Saturday, this weekend promises some exciting action and great racing.

The Planet Bike Cup – USGP Rounds 1 & 2 (C1/C2)

The Winner(s)

Jeremy Powers – Powers looked unstoppable on Wednesday night as he stormed to victory in Vegas. I saw Powers last weekend at Nittany cross and while he looked strong, his emphasis seemed to be on January and February. As a result, I figured the early season didn’t matter to him. Boy was I wrong. The defending USGP champ will be on the podium both days, taking the top-step at least once.

Tim Johnson – like Powers, Johnson showed he’s on great form in Vegas. He looked really good in Vermont, but was unable to capture a victory. It would appear that the Powers-Johnson rivalry is back and I expect the Cannondale p/b Cyclocrossworld.com rider to get his first victory of the season this weekend.

The Podium

Ben Berden – In 1994, Berden finished on the third step of the U23 World Championship podium on Koksijde, Belgium. Fast forward nearly two decades and Berden is back in the thick of things, in the US at least. Berden looked solid on Wednesday night and while he will surely pick up some wins this year, I’m not sure he can do it this weekend. He could easily podium both days though.

Jonathan Page – in what appears to be a transition year for Page, he has been battling for the win at nearly every race this season. However, he hasn’t reached the top step. Page has had success in Wisconsin in the past and would love to win a round of the USGP. I just don’t think he’ll do it, but he’s good for a podium appearance.

Charm City MAC Rounds 3&4 (UCI C2)

The MAC series continues this weekend in Baltimore, MD. Last weekend Jeremy Powers took day one, while mid-Atlantic standout Jared Nieters took day two. Nicolas Bazin is venturing down from New England where he has been nearly unbeatable, while Ian Field crosses the pond for a mini US campaign.

The Winner(s)

Nicolas Bazin – Bazin has been killing it stateside with three victories and one second place in four races. The Frenchman looks prime for another victory this weekend, if not two. For some reason, I think Field will get the better of him one day this weekend.

Ian Field – a winner here last year, Field comes over from England following a non-UCI victory last weekend. Bazin whill give him a run for his money, but a repeat victory seems certain for Field. He should finish on the podium both days and I expect him to trade the top-step with Bazin,

The Podium

Ryan Knapp – Before Nittany, Knapp was low on my riders to watch list. In fact, I only mentioned him in the last sentence of my predictions and even got his state wrong (I’ve sinced apologized to the man from Indiana). Knapp rode well last weekend with a third and fourth place finish. I expect him to land on the podium one day this weekend.

Jared Nieters – Last weekend I was critical of the mid-Atlantic, proclaiming that no mid-Atlantic rider would finish on the podium. Nieters proved me wrong. To my credit, I kept an eye on Nieters and his teammate Weston Schempf, both of whom should be in the mix this weekend. Look for Nieters to land on the podium one of those days.

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