Worlds Elite Men’s Road Race – Winners & Losers


2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - Hushovd Wins

Fotoreporter Sirotti



The World Road Race Championship is without a doubt one of the sport’s greatest spectacles.  To me, the best thing about Worlds is its ability to produce a surprise winner that’s never really a surprise.  By this I mean that the World Champion is often not the rider you might have expected or wanted to win, but still someone whose victory comes as no shock.  Take last year, for example: Cadel Evans was not someone mentioned near the top of many lists of contenders, but when he won, most of us felt as if we could have seen it coming—even thought we didn’t.


With the exception of one of my esteemed colleagues, this year’s race produced a similar winner.  While I considered Hushovd an outside contender for the win Sunday, there were others whom I felt were more likely candidates.  In hindsight though, I’m not surprised at all.  That said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s winners and losers.


Winners


Jeremy

JR picked Thor for the win—and had been saying he was going to do so since the first week of the Vuelta.  Not many guys call their shots and get them right.  Color me impressed.


Thor Hushovd

Only a blog would give credit to one of its editors before giving credit to the man actually making the news.  All kidding aside, Thor rode a fantastic race, sticking with it long after others had abandoned, riding patiently while his teammate (Boasson Hagen) was in the leading group, and taking care of business when given the opportunity.  He now heads to Paris-Tours as a top favorite, and looks to become the first World Champion to win a major cobbled classic since Tom Boonen won the Ronde in 2006.



2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - P. Gilbert

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Philippe Gilbert

Gilbert entered Sunday’s race with a huge target on his back, yet raced the way true champions are expected to—even in defeat.  Moral victories don’t count for much in a country where the term “what have you done for me lately?” might as well as be the national motto, but Belgium has no reason to slight Gilbert’s efforts.  He did his best, but in the end was defeated by a course that proved just a bit too easy for an escape to stick.


Australia

Cadel Evans and his Aussie teammates more than held their own in front of a home crowd.  While the team failed to defend its title from Mendrisio, Evans made every move that mattered and Allan Davis took third on the day.  Good on ya, mates!


The New Course Format

I don’t know about you, but I liked the addition of a long lap before beginning the traditional finishing circuits.  It makes the race more interesting to watch, gives more fans a chance to see their stars, and has to be more interesting for the riders themselves.


The Killer V’s

Jonathan Vaughters and Gerard Vroomen now have a World Champion in their midst—certainly the biggest win in either squad’s history.   The bar has been raised for 2011, but with a solid team of men ready to prove they belong, more big wins—and the publicity that accompanies them—seem certain to follow.



Losers


Mattio and I

We completely misjudged the race—my pick (Matthew Goss) didn’t even finish.  Ugh.



2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - F. Cancellara

Fotoreporter Sirotti



Fabian Cancellara

Talk about hero to zero!  Cancellara finished 50th after failing to make the day’s key selection.  If Cancellara’s really serious about winning Worlds—and the hillier monuments—one day, he’ll need to seriously re-think the scope and sequence of his season.  Anything’s possible for the powerful Swiss champion, but his performance Sunday leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those expecting a repeat of his dominating April.


Belgium

Belgium has to be wondering what Sunday would have been like had an in-form Tom Boonen made the trip.  While they can’t be blamed for his non-selection (he’s only just returned to racing after an injury-riddled summer), they have to be disappointed to see their boys come home empty-handed.  The team rode as well as it could have given the conditions, they just lacked a rider able to contend in that kind of finale.


Paolo Bettini

Running the Italian National team is a lot like managing the New York Yankees or coaching Real Madrid as its nearly impossible to live up to the expectations of the world’s most passionate fans—especially when you have one of the planet’s most gifted talent pool from which to build your team. Italy’s strongest move was sending Vincenzo Nibali up the road with a few laps left to race—even if it was probably a bit too soon.  In the end, Pippo Pozzato followed wheels to fourth place, but never appeared strong enough to win.  After leaving several men known more for their powerful sprints at home, Bettini has several questions to answer.  Even worse for the new capo, next year’s sprinter’s course in Copenhagen won’t make life any easier.



2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - Spain

Fotoreporter Sirotti



Spain

Samuel Sanchez and Luis Leon Sanchez failed to even finish, while 3-time champion Oscar Freire—in a finale that seemed tailor-made for him—could manage no better than sixth.  Freire’s best days might be creeping behind him, but the question remains: how did he end up alone in the lead group?  With not a single teammate able to make the cut, Spanish fans can’t be blamed for wondering how many days remain before Valverde’s return.


The United States

Is it harsh to wonder if the United States’ U23 team would have fared better Sunday than the elite men did?  Tyler Farrar was nowhere to be seen—the top US-finisher was Ted King in 73rd, more than 13 minutes behind Hushovd.  On a day when many (including yours truly) had expected Farrar to prove that he’s more than just a field sprinter, he failed to impress.  It’s a shame USA Cycling seems to treat the elite men’s road race as more of a vacation than an objective.


Race Radio Fans

Sorry Johan Bruyneel, but every time a race is run without the use of rider-to-car radios, it’s exciting, aggressive, and almost never fails to produce a worthy winner.  Was Sunday a glimpse into cycling’s future?


What about you?  Who are your Worlds winners and losers?  Share your comments below.

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Worlds 2011: Martin on clinchers?

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Rich’s tweet about a Continental announcement caught my attention. Continental claimed that Tony Martin, 2011’s World Champion, had achieved his decisive win on their new Grand Prix TT clincher. A Worlds win on a clincher, let alone the time trial seemed a little far fetched.

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Worlds 2009 – Trouble in Belgium?

There’s trouble brewing in Belgium–and no, I’m not talking about a new batch of Chimay.

National coach Carlo Bomans has named the following 8 riders to the Belgian National Team for the road race next weekend in Mendrisio:
Phillipe Gilbert
Tom Boonen
Francis De Greef
Kevin De Weert
Maxime Monfort
Nick Nuyens
Greg Van Avermaet
Maarten Wynants

At first glance, doesn’t this list appear to be lacking one key rider?

If you said Stijn Devolder, I think you’re right–and so does Stijn. Devolder–currently riding the Vuelta in preparation–thought he was a “certain pick” for his country’s team. He’s on the list of 5 riders in contention for the 9th and final spot; but for Devolder, the insult has already been hurled.

According to Bomans, he wanted a team of riders that would be 100% committed to getting Gilbert the win. If that’s the case then, why is Tom Boonen riding? No offense to Tommeke, but does Bomans really think he’ll be able to offer any assistance on a course that’s rumored to be quite tough? Boonen can barely win a field sprint right now, let alone compete in a long, hilly one-day event. And Bomans doesn’t think that Nick Nuyens and Greg Van Avermaet–if given the opportunity–will ride for themselves? Surely, he can’t be serious.

He is, and stop me calling me Shirley.

To add insult to injury, Bomans responded to Devolder’s fury by criticizing him for not riding more offensively at the Vuelta. Not to repeat myself, but what’s his reason for including Boonen then? Where has he been over the past 17 days…or 67 days for that matter.

Here’s my take: Carlos Bomans was one of Patrick Lefevre’s key flahutes back in the heydays of Mapei. I can’t help but wonder if Lefevre’s a bit miffed over Devolder’s reported attempt to fly the crowded Quick Step coop for undisputed spring leadership with The Shack. Maybe this is Lefevres’s subtle way of letting Devolder know that he shouldn’t attempt to bite the hand that feeds him?

We’ll soon know if Devolder ultimately gets his place on the team, but in his mind it might already be too late. If this is a taste of things to come, it could be a very interesting April for the Belgian boys in blue and white.

Thoughts?

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World Cup Preview: Round 4 – Igorre, Spain

Photo by Balint Hamvas | cyclephotos.co.uk

The UCI Cyclocross World Cup heads to Iggore in the Basque region of Spain for round number four. After last weekend’s battle in the sand of Koksijde, all eyes will be on Sven Nys and Kevin Pauwels. This is the eighth time Iggore has hosted a world cup round and Nys has won half of those races. However, the last time he took the top step of the podium was in 2008. Zdenk Stybar won in 2009 and Niels Albert took the victory in 2010. With Albert still healing from a broken wrist, Stybar will be one of a few riders looking to upset Pauwels and Nys.

After several days of heavy rain, the course in Iggore will once again be extremely muddy and challenging, making the battle for the win and the overall even more spectacular. Currently Pauwels leads Nys by a slim five point margin, with Stybar a distant third, 25 point behind Pauwels. Francis Mourey, who finished second in Iggore last year, sits fourth overall, 50 points back. Mourey has had a solid season and would love to podium again in Iggore.

Outside of the affore mentioned riders, look for Klass Vantornout to contend for victory, especially if the conditions are as muddy as predicted. Bart Wellens has had previous success in Iggore, but struggled last weekend and appears not to be on top form right now. American Jonathan Page is another rider who seems to ride well in the Basque region and would love to have some success as he rebounds from a poor start this year.

Jeremy Durrin is the only other American taking the start in Iggore as he begins a mid-season European campaign. Brit Ian Field has elected not to take the start in Spain. The last time a Spanish rider landed on the pdoium in Iggore was in 2004 with David Seco. Despite having eight starters, it would be surprising to see any Spaniard inside the top ten.

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World Championship Preview – Elite Men’s Time Trial



2010 Vuelta a Espana - Cancellara in Stage 17

Fotoreporter Sirotti




Here’s a run-down of our top favorites for Thursday’s World Championship time trail from Melbourne, Australia.  Share your comments and picks below.


5-Stone Favorites


Fabian Cancellara

The last few weeks haven’t exactly gone as planned for Switzerland’s Fabian Cancellara He failed to finish the year’s Vuelta a Espana—much to the disappointment of team management—and was uncharacteristically defeated in the race’s one and only ITT by not one, but two men.  All signs point to a poor performance Thursday is Australia for the reigning World Champion, right?  Think again, this is Fabian Cancellara we’re talking about.  Do you have the courage to doubt him?


Tony Martin

Of the men who stand to benefit from Cancellara’s reported struggle for fitness, Germany’s Tony Martin stands the most to gain.  Martin’s proven over the past two years that he’s the world’s second-best best time trialist—a title he’s ready to abandon with a storming ride Thursday.  Martin only finished third in Mendrisio after skipping last year’s Vuelta—an ominous sign considering he made the same decision (skipping the Spanish grand tour) this season.  But for a young rider with seemingly limitless potential, anything seems possible.


4-Stone Favorites




2010 Vuelta a Espana - P. Velits in Stage 17

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Peter Velits

Peter Velits pulled-off a bit of a surprise when he won Stage 17’s ITT at the Vuelta two weeks ago—beating Cancellara, Denis Menchov, and several noted time trialists in the process.  For the young Slovakian, his stage win and subsequent 3rd-place finish overall confirms the potential he showed when he won the 2007 U23 World Championship.  If he manages to hold-on to the form he displayed in Spain, his only obstacle on the way to a podium spot Thursday might be his ambitions for Sunday’s road race.  Look out Spartacus, you have some pretty serious competition in your quest to become a double world champion.




2010 Vuelta a Espana - Larsson in Stage 17

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Gustav Erik Larsson

Sweden’s Gustav Erik Larsson’s the guy everyone forgets about each year—until the World Championship ITT.  Last year Larsson was the only person able to stay within two minutes of Cancellara in Mendrisio—this year he hopes to have the form necessary to topple his soon to be former teammate.  He won an ITT in this year’s Giro as well as a silver medal in the 2008 Olympics.  Does the Swede have what it takes to trade silver for gold?


3-Stone Favorites


Bert Grabsch

Grabsch won the World Championship ITT in 2008—the last time Cancellara didn’t race.  A veteran with a knack for finding his form just when he needs it—especially in time for a time trial—the German might be asked to use his ride as a gauge for Martin, his German teammate.  Regardless, Grabsch is a solid podium candidate.


Svein Tuft

Like Grabsch, Tuft’s best performance at Worlds came in 2008—he finished second.  This year, the Canadian rode impressively at the Tour of Denmark and Benelux Tour, perhaps earning him his new contract with Pegasus Racing/Fly V.  Without the Vuelta in his legs though, I wonder if Tuft can really challenge for the podium—he deserves mention nonetheless.


David Zabriskie

Talk about a riddle wrapped in an enigma!  DZ is one of the hardest nuts to crack in the professional peloton.  When he wants to be, he’s one of the 3-5 best time trialists in the world.  On other days though, he’s pack fodder.  Zabriskie’s last high finish at Worlds came in 2008 when he finished third.  I have a hunch he might put in a good ride Thursday—he rode an aggressive Vuelta (by his standards), and needs a good result to justify his spot on a team that has few seats left on the bus.


2-Stone Favorites


Edvald Boassen Hagen, Luis Leon Sanchez, Michael Rogers, and Richie Porte deserve mention as outside contenders for top placings Thursday.  Boasson Hagen ‘s a proven performer who’s underwhelmed thus far this season.  Sanchez has placed well as Worlds in the past, but is better bet to save himself for the road race Sunday.  As for Rogers and Porte, Rogers is a former World Champion while Porte’s been one this year’s biggest surprises.  Both could make their home fans proud.


And my prediction?


1. Fabian Cancellara

2. Tony Martin

3. Gustav Erik Larsson


Share your comments and picks below.


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World Champ By Numbers 2011

Picking favorites for a one day race like the World Championships is tricky. A cyclist who performs well in late August/early September may be totally out of shape come October. Riding on to the podium of a race like the Vuelta will leave you in peak condition, but what sort of impact will three weeks of stage racing have on fatigue levels?

However, we looked at past performances as an indication of what it takes to win and came up with some criteria for winning the World Championships. Last year, “The Numbers” (with a bit of massaging) predicted that Thor Hushovd would win. This year is a little harder to predict, with the Vuelta ending a little earlier, World’s being held over a week earlier, and a number of the favorites thrown off due to injuries in the Vuelta. With a course that everyone is saying favors the sprinters, it’s tough to use basic statistics and expect them to mean anything – but we’ll try nevertheless.

Last year’s 4 criteria were: riding the Vuelta, winning a stage, dropping out before the end of the Vuelta, and having a large (read: non-minimal) team. Let’s see what that means this year. To review the markers:

10/10 World Champions rode the Vuelta

In 1995, the Vuelta was moved to September, and the Worlds were moved to October. This made the Vuelta the perfect race to build form for a late September/October campaign. Before 1995, the Worlds were in August, making it a well-timed race for Tour de France riders, and a target for greats like Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Greg Lemond. These days, it seems like the one-day specialists have a lock on the race.

Every one of the last 10 champions has ridden the Vuelta as preparation – and only 3 since 1995 (Romans Vainsteins 2000, Óscar Freire 1999, Johan Museeuw 1996) haven’t ridden the Vuelta.

7/10 World Champions won stages at the Vuelta

There’s no hiding form. 7 out of 10 World champs won at least 1 stage at the Vuelta. Some won more. If you loosen those requirements a little, 8 out of the 9 Vuelta-riding WC’s finished in the top three in one or more stages.

Mario Cipollini won 3 stages in the Vuelta before winning the Worlds in 2002. Paoli Bettini took a Vuelta stage before each of his wins (2006, 2007), and Alessando Ballan took one before his (2008). Freire won a stage in 2004, and podiumed in 2001. Last year’s winner Thor Hushovd won stage 6 of the 2010 edition, as well as a 2nd in stage 13.

Others were a little more subtle; Cadel Evans took a few 3rd places en route to winning the overall 3rd place in the Vuelta (2009), and Tom Boonen came in third just once.

Only Igor Astarloa (2003) failed to win or podium on a stage.

9/10 World Champion’s DNF’d the Vuelta

And while there’s no hiding it, form is fickle. Peak too early, and you’ll either lose form or overtrain by the time you reach the Worlds. Back off on training at the wrong time, and you’ll head to the worlds with less than perfect form.

Only Cadel Evans rode the Vuelta to completion, ultimately finishing on the bottom step of the podium. Every other World Champion Vuelta rider dropped out at some point. Some dropped out earlier than others, but the last few champions have dropped out somewhere between stages 13 and 17, in order to avoid complete fatigue brought on by the killer hills of the Vuelta.

Dropping out early seems to be part of the Italian Worlds playbook. Cipollini, Bettini and Ballan all dropped out of the Vuelta – Cipollini did so after stage 7, making his 3 wins even more impressive. Bettini dropped out before stage 18 for both his wins, and Ballan bailed after stage 15. Freire 2001 was a stage 15 dropout, Freire 2004 bailed during stage 12, Tom Boonen hung in through stage 13, and Astarloa called it quits during stage 11.

Last year, Hushovd hung up his bike after stage 16.

9/10 World Champion’s had full (or close) teams

The rainbow jersey isn’t won without help. Full squads supported 9 out of 10 world champions. Team sizes have changed over the years, settling on a maximum 9 in 2005. The extremes have been mitigated – in 2000, Romans Vainsteins won on a team of 3, while many of his competitors were on teams of 12.

Some teammates were unequivocally devoted to delivering their compatriot a win, as was the case with the Squadra Azzurra victories of Cipollini and Bettini. Others didn’t necessarily have total support going in to the race.

Last year’s Thor Hushovd only had a pair of teammates. This is probably an example of where having extensive experience and awareness in the peloton can pay off – if you don’t have your own wheels to follow, knowing the right ones to latch on to is the next best thing.

Where’s that leave us for 2011?

Two riders participating in this year’s World Championships meet all of the above criteria: Tony Martin and Marcel Kittel. Each won a stage in the Vuelta, and dropped out prior to its completion.

Martin clearly used the form he built to his advantage, soundly beating everyone in this year’s Time Trial World Championships, coming in well over a minute sooner than second place Bradley Wiggins’ time. It’s safe to assume he’ll be riding support for the German team, as he’s both likely to be fatigued, and unlikely to be a major threat in a course of this style. That said, it’d be foolish to let him get off his leash in the final laps of the race circuit, given how fast he can ride solo.

Kittel’s win came in a crash marred stage 7, leaving him contending the final sprint against a reduced, but still highly talented group, including Peter Sagan, Oscar Freire and Danielle Bennati. Furthermore, he just won over the likes of Andrei Greipel and Robbie McEwen in the Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen, to bring his win tally in his first full year of professional racing to 14. He’s young, but he’s riding with an experienced German team that should be well prepared to contend in what’s predicted to be a sprint finish. The only major question is, will he be the protected rider on the team, or will it be Andrei Greipel? And if its Greipel, will he still have the opportunity to mix it up in the final sprint, if it comes to it?

Who else?

4 riders won Vuelta stages, and will be riding in “big” teams: Chris Froome for the UK, Pablo Lastras for Spain, and Francesco Gavazzi and Daniele Bennati for Italy. Of the 4, Bennati is the one most obviously suited to the course.

Notably absent from the above is Peter Sagan. Sagan notched 3 wins (and an additional 2 podiums) in the Vuelta, and a total of 14 for the year. He’s well suited to the course, and is currently ranked as a top favorite by both the cycling press and those with the most to lose – the bookmakers. 

Predictions?

This year is hard to apply stats to than last year. 2010 lacked the USA Pro Cycling Challenge as possible tuning race in the month of August – an option some top conteders took this year. It also had a World’s race taking place 9 days later – but a Vuelta that finished 8 days earlier. Similar recovery time should negate any concerns about fatigue differences, but makes it hard to understand the impact races between the end of the Vuelta and the World’s road race has. Is riding the Tour of Britain this year a good idea? Last year you would have had 3 weeks to recover from it prior to World’s. This year, just 1 week. For riders like Mark Cavendish, a major favorite for this year who dropped out of the Vuelta early, it was an opportunity to get some more racing miles in his legs as a lead-in – a necessary gambit, to be sure, but a major unknown when compared with prior year’s successful preparations.

Personally, I’m liking riders like Sagan, Bennati and Kittel for this year’s course. Kittel and Sagan are both exceedingly young – brash and capable of stunning their competitors, but also liable to make mistakes. And while the “numbers” don’t support it, discounting contenders like Mark Cavendish, Philippe Gilbert (never bet against Gilbert), Thor Hushovd, Oscar Freire, Fabian Cancellara – the list goes on and on – would be foolish at best. If riders like Gilbert decide to turn the race into a long-range slugfest, will the sprinters be able to get it together for a bunch sprint?

Think the numbers will mean anything this year? Let us know in a comment below!

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